5 reasons RB Leipzig will beat Aston Villa

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1) Dangerous up top

There’s still no Xavi due to an ankle complaint, but the sharp end of the Leipzig spear remains very pointy indeed. Although still to fire in Europe this season. Loïs Openda has scored five and provided three assists in the league, adding to his 28 competitive strikes last term

The Belgian is ably assisted by strike partner Benjamin Šeško, who has netted three of Die Roten Bullen’s four Champions League goals this season, doing so against sides with famously mean defences: Atlético de Madrid and Juventus. The 21-year-old has a further three goals and two assists in the Bundesliga, as well as five in the UEFA Nations League for Slovenia.

Watch: Some of Leipzig's best goals so far in 2024/25

2) Supporting cast

Part of Leipzig’s struggles in Europe this season have been down to injury. In addition to Xavi being on the sidelines, David Raum, Yussuf Poulsen and Elif Elmas are among the attack-minded players in the treatment room, depriving Rose of some serious talent. Nevertheless, Leipzig still have a number of options if Openda and Šeško have an off day. 

Chief among them is Antonio Nusa, the 19-year-old who has made waves in recent weeks with his eye for goal and overall threat in the final third. Three assists and two goals are his haul in the Bundesliga to date, while his movement in dragging defenders out of position is perhaps less tangibly measured but no less important. His hat-trick of assists in the DFB Cup win over Eintracht Frankfurt last week are the perfect example of just how dangerous he can be. 

There’s also wily Austria international Christoph Baumgartner, an unlikely source of goals this season in centre-back Willi Orbán - who has four league strikes - and experienced striker André Silva.

Watch: Antonio Nusa - running with the baton at Leipzig

3) Home record

Admittedly, this might seem like an odd thing to highlight given that Leipzig lost 5-1 to Wolfsburg on their own patch recently, and were beaten by Liverpool and Juventus in the Champions League at the 41,122-capacity Red Bull Arena in Europe this season.

However, they have a knack of stepping up at home when they need to – and Leipzig need to win this game to have any hope of progressing to the knockout rounds via the play-offs. And in the past they have brought their A-game against some of the continent’s most illustrious teams.

Remember the 3-2 win over Manchester United in December 2020? Or a year later when they drew 2-2 with a Paris Saint-Germain side containing Neymar, Kylian Mbappé and Ángel Di María and then beat Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City 2-1? Or in October 2022 when they defeated Real Madrid 3-2?

This Leipzig side are long overdue a win in the Champions League. After all, they're still fourth in the Bundesliga and into the DFB Cup quarter-finals, so write them off at your peril.

Watch: Inside the home of RB Leipzig

4) Defensive solidity

Recent heavy defeats against Hoffenheim (4-3), Wolfsburg (5-1) and Celtic (3-1) suggest otherwise, but Leipzig have been pretty solid at the back this season.

We kid you not. Those results are very much outliers for a team that conceded just five goals in the first 10 Bundesliga games of 2024/25. Even now, they have only let in six goals at the Red Bull Arena in the league in 2024/25, while the 14 Bundesliga goals let in overall is far below their xG of 21.

Rose has tightened things up at the back since that Wolfsburg loss, overseeing to-nil wins against Frankfurt and Holstein Kiel. And with only two goals conceded from crosses into the box and none at all let in follow opposition counter-attacks, Leipzig have a solid foundation on which to build.

Watch: Holstein Kiel 0-2 RB Leipzig - highlights

5) Counter-attacking quality

Speaking of counter-attacks, Leipzig are experts at that particular skillset. Frankfurt are the only team to have had more shots on goal (24) in transition than Rose’s men (17) in the Bundesliga this season, while Bayern Munich (eight) are the only team to have scored more than Leipzig’s six from such attacks.

Leipzig demonstrated just how ruthless they can be on the counter in that cup victory over high-flying Frankfurt last week, with all three goals coming from their pressing and counter-attacking ability, showing once again that, on their day, they have the tools to play any which way they choose and beat anyone.