5 reasons Leipzig will beat Bayern in the Supercup

Leipzig picked four of a possible six points up from Bayern in the Bundesliga last season, and are in a cup-winning mood having won lifted the DFB Cup as recently as June…

1) Recent history

A one-off game like the Supercup between two strong teams can often come down to confidence, and Leipzig have every right to bound into this meeting on a high having gone undefeated against Bayern last season.

Die Roten Bullen held the champions to a 1-1 draw at their Red Bull Arena in January when Marcel Halstenberg cancelled out Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting's opener, and when the teams reconvened at the Allianz Arena in May, Leipzig ran out 3-1 winners, with Konrad Laimer, Christopher Nkunku and Dominik Szoboszlai all scoring in reply to Serge Gnabry's early goal.

Watch: Highlights of Leipzig's 3-1 win over Bayern

Those with an eagle eye may notice that Leipzig's scorers that day have each moved on this summer - Laimer to Bayern, Nkunku to Chelsea and Szoboszlai to Liverpool - but Leipzig have nonetheless had one of the most impressive transfer windows in Europe.

Laimer has been replaced like-for-like with Red Bull Salzburg's Nicolas Seiwald, and while Nkunku and Szoboszlai's departures cost Leipzig some potent attacking firepower, there are sure to be goals from new arrivals Lois Openda (from Lens), Benjamin Sesko (Salzburg), Xavi Simons (Paris Saint-Germain), Christoph Baumgartner (Hoffenheim), and Fabio Carvalho (Liverpool).

Leipzig now have an embarrassment of attacking riches in the final third - Werner and Dani Olmo also remain on the books - but none of their players enjoy playing Bayern more than Emil Forsberg does.

The Swede has struck three goals and four assists in his 15 career meetings with Bayern, giving him a hand in a third of all goals Leipzig have ever scored against them. Forsberg also has a goal-involvement every 123 minutes he has played against the Bavarians.

Leipzig might have been facing four former employees had Julian Nagelsmann and Marcel Sabitzer still been at Bayern, but as things stand they will still come up against two, with Laimer having joined Dayot Upamecano at the Allianz Arena.

Whilst that talent drain is something Leipzig will be keen to plug it can also be argued that they have a more thorough understanding of Saturday's opponents than Bayern do of them.

Marco Rose has already proven to be a tactical - and indeed motivational - match for any manager in a one-off game, as last season's meetings with Bayern attest.

But this is thrown into sharper focus looking at his cup final history. Rose led Red Bull Salzburg to the UEFA Youth League title in 2017 and their senior squad to the Austrian Cup in 2019 (which was part of a domestic double) before leading Leipzig to DFB Cup glory in June with a 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt.