Analysing Kompany's high-press, high-risk Bayern

Bayern have started 2024/25 with four wins and two draws - the exact same record they had at the start of last season. There are two key differences between this campaign and the previous one, though. This season, Bayern sit top after six games rather than in third, and they have also adopted a very different playing style.

Under Kompany, the team’s playing style resembles that of Pep Guardiola's class of 2013-16. Kompany’s approach focuses on building from the back, with goalkeeper Manuel Neuer continuing to be key to their build-up play essentially as an extra outfield player. In order to create a numerical advantage in midfield, the nominal right-back usually moves into midfield, which is why the left-footed Raphaël Guerreiro has been able to play there, as he acts as more of a midfielder. On the opposite flank, Alphonso Davies maintains his natural position due to the problems his pace can cause out wide.

Pressure, pressure, pressure – and an impressive attack

As a result of their midfield overload, the Bayern players have numerous passing options available to them, therefore allowing them to maintain possession and control the game. So far this season, Bayern have an average of 66 percent possession – the best in the league. Their pass success rate of 91 percent also tops the Bundesliga charts. If they lose the ball, they counter-press aggressively in order to regain possession as quickly as possible. Similarly, if the opponent tries to build up from the back, they adopt an intense man-to-man press.

This constant pressure leads to more chances for Bayern, due to loose passes from the opposition which they’re able to capitalise on. By winning the ball higher up the pitch, there is a shorter distance to goal and therefore more chance of Bayern getting a shot on goal – evidenced by the fact that Kompany’s men have had 113 attempts in their opening six games, with only defending champions Bayer Leverkusen having more. Bayern ‘only’ have an Expected Goals value of 14.3 - the third highest in the Bundesliga - but the 20 goals they have scored so far and their shot efficiency of +5.7 are what really count.

A week without a win – despite their dominance

Despite their early season form, Bayern fans are not 100 percent satisfied, although the style of play has been well received by the club’s top brass. “We are much quicker on the ball, we press higher. It’s a lot of fun to watch,” admitted club president Herbert Hainer. The main topic of the past week has been that Bayern are now winless in three games. The 1-1 draw with Leverkusen was followed by a 1-0 defeat to Aston Villa in the UEFA Champions League and another 3-3 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt.

While their style of play is attractive, the overloaded midfield leaves space on the wings. This open space, when combined with the defence’s high line, has caused issues. Behind the centre-back pairing of Dayot Upamecano and Minjae Kim, there is space that two defenders cannot cover alone, despite the impressive speed of both players and also Neuer's presence off his line. At times, even with his vast experience, the decision on whether to stick or twist hasn't always proved right.

When counter-pressing following the loss of possession, Bayern attack so aggressively that gaps can be found in midfield. When Bayern encounter press-resistant players with good ball control, their press is more likely to be breached, leaving Upamecano and Kim isolated. If opposing players such as Frankfurt's Omar Marmoush also have the required burst of pace and finishing ability, it becomes very difficult to defend those counter-attacks.

Watch: Marmoush punished Bayern's high line on Matchday 6

Opponents being clinical

Bayern have conceded seven goals in their first six Bundesliga games, keeping a clean sheet only twice. They also conceded three goals in their opening two Champions League games against Villa but also Croatian champions Dinamo Zagreb.

In the past 16 years, Bayern have only conceded more than one goal per Bundesliga game in the opening six matchdays one other season, when they shipped nine in 2020/21. They have not conceded many shots on goal, though, with 32 comfortably the lowest in the league in comparison to every other side conceding at least 59. Statistically, this means that Bayern are conceding from every fourth to fifth shot on goal. Neuer has not saved even half of the shots he has faced this season, with his save percentage hovering around 46 percent.

When the pressing fails and the defence can’t contain the danger, it is the 2014 FIFA World Cup winner that faces the consequences. When the whole team plays higher up, so does Neuer, and this is something that Emery identified ahead of their Champions League clash. “During the analysis, we talked a lot about Neuer’s usually very high positioning,” explained Emery, who fed this information to substitute Jhon Duran before the game. “I knew he would shoot because he had this possibility in mind with Neuer," he added of the Colombian's game-winning lob.

Is Palhinha the solution to their problems?

"Unfortunately, that was a goal, and that's part of the calculated risk. Maybe I could have been two metres further back, but it would still have been uncertain whether I would get it. That's our game," said Neuer, describing how he was beaten in the Champions League. Regardless, coach Kompany doesn't want to change anything about his style of play for the time being.

He may not want to adjust his playing style, but he could adjust his personnel to ease their defensive issues. Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlović work well together, but neither are classic ball-winners, and think more offensively than defensively. One player who could provide more balance in this position is summer signing João Palhinha. Kompany’s predecessor Thomas Tuchel was keen to bring the midfielder to the Allianz Arena and repeatedly noted that Bayern could really use a “holding six”, a word coined by Tuchel for a defensive No.6 who holds his position and shields the defence.

To accommodate Palhinha, Kimmich could play at right-back (often moving into midfield), with Guerreiro reverting to his natural left side, thus making the most of his ball-playing abilities. Also, all of Kimmich, Pavlović and Palhinha could play together in a 4-3-3. However, this would mean sacrificing one of Serge Gnabry, Michael Olise or Jamal Musiala in attack, as there is no replacing Harry Kane at centre-forward.

“We haven’t won three times now. I’m very happy to be in this crisis,” joked Thomas Müller after the 3-3 draw in Frankfurt, in an attempt to calm any unrest. Last season's surprise runners-up VfB Stuttgart are up next for the high-risk Bundesliga leaders on Matchday 7.