Dortmund vs. Leverkusen: Pre-game Match Facts analysis

Sunday’s game at Signal Iduna Park presents a big chance for both teams. Dortmund can put 11 points between themselves and Leverkusen directly below them, while also maintaining pressure on leaders Bayern Munich. As for Die Werkself, they can reduce the gap to BVB above them to five points while also guaranteeing their buffer to the melee of teams lurking below them in the race for a top-four finish and UEFA Champions League qualification.

And regardless of the final outcome on Matchday 21, it tends to be a spectacle for viewers. Take the return fixture, for example. The game ended 4-3 to Borussia after hosts Leverkusen had thrice taken the lead, only for Dortmund to level three times before Erling Haaland scored the decisive goal 13 minutes from time. The last 10 Bundesliga encounters alone have produced 50 goals.

Watch: Highlights of Dortmund’s 4-3 win in Leverkusen

Haaland and Schick leading for efficiency

Attack is the order of the day for both these teams, and both possess a world-class striker to lead their line. Only Robert Lewandowski (23) has more goals this season than Patrik Schick (18) and Haaland (16) – both of whom netted in the Matchday 4 meeting.

However, nobody can top the pair for effectiveness in front of goal this term. The shot efficiency Match Fact shows just how a player or a team is over- or underperforming when it comes to the number of goals they’ve scored compared to how many they should have based on statistical probability.

In the case of Haaland, he’s the most efficient player in the division, with a value of +5.2. That is calculated by the fact he had scored 16 goals, but his xGoal value is only 10.8.

Watch: All of Haaland’s Bundesliga goals this season

The second most clinical player in the Bundesliga is Schick, who should have only scored 13.2 times this season but in fact has 18. That’s an efficiency of +4.8. No players with more than four goals to their name come close to such a high value.

Clinical strikers also help Dortmund and Leverkusen into the top two for most efficient teams in 2021/22. BVB are by far the deadliest in terms of putting away chances, scoring 52 times from an xG of 39.9 for a shot efficiency of +12.1. They are followed on +8.6 by Die Werkself, whose 49 goals are a new club record after 20 matchdays and are the result of an expected 40.4.

By means of comparison, Bayern – on a league record 65 goals at this stage – are just 2.6 better off than their xG of 62.4. Borussia and Bayer are averaging a goal less than every sixth shot, which is again a better return than the league leaders.

Watch: Tactical analysis of Leverkusen

Width key to both

In terms of formations, Dortmund flow fluidly between a 4-3-3 and a 4-2-3-1; Leverkusen almost exclusively stick to the latter. Die Werskelf’s use of out-and-out wingers means 69 per cent of their attacks come from out wide, especially through the in-form Moussa Diaby down the right, where they have had 38 per cent of their forays into the final third. The result can also be seen in the fact that the inside right channel has produced the greatest proportion of their goals.

BVB’s distribution is more even. Again, the majority of moves come down the sides but with only a marginal preference for the left. However, the inside left channel is by far their best zone for scoring goals at 42 per cent. These are mostly through balls up to Haaland, keeping him on his stronger left. The fact central midfielders Julian Brandt and Jude Bellingham are Borussia’s top providers with six assists each underlines Dortmund's effectivity through the inside channels.

These attacking endeavours have had an impact at the other end, however. Despite sitting second and third in the standings, eight teams – including 14th-placed Arminia Bielefeld (26) – have conceded fewer goals than Dortmund (31) and Leverkusen (32).

Both sides have also made strong starts to the Rückrunde, with the pair unbeaten and BVB in fact winning three from three. Borussia are also the league’s best home team this season with nine wins from 10, while Bayer are the division’s second best on the road with 10 points more earned on their travels than at home.

It all points to yet another thrilling encounter between two of the Bundesliga’s most exciting teams.