Bundesliga
An in-depth look at Sunday's clash between two attack-minded sides in RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen that could play a decisive role in the title race.
1) Forward thinking
The fact that both Leipzig and Leverkusen have each only had one goalless draw in the Bundesliga all season tells you everything you need to know about their playing styles: spoiler alert – they attack!
Julian Nagelsmann's side have found the net 61 times already this term, while Timo Werner has equalled his personal single-season best of 21 goals - with 11 games still to play. Now that Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski is out for a month with injury, the Germany international has even more motivation in his bid to finish the campaign as top scorer.
As if that were not enough, Marcel Sabitzer has scored more from distance than anyone else in the league (five); Christopher Nkunku became the first player in eight years to register four assists in a single game when he helped dismantle Schalke last week; Angelino's strike in that match means 14 Leipzig players have found the net in 2019/20 – a figure only bettered by Borussia Dortmund - and Die Roten Bullen have scored more goals from set-pieces (15) than anyone else.
Oh, and they’ve also been on target in every home outing this season and are the only team to have registered three or more goals in 14 different matches this term. Gulp.
So is it game over for Leverkusen before a ball is even kicked? Not quite. Peter Bosz's men may not be able to match Leipzig for goals scored, but they still average close to two per game in 2019/20.
Die Werkself have a side filled with exciting, pacy youngsters such as Kai Havertz, Leon Bailey and Moussa Diaby, while the likes of Karim Bellarabi and Lucas Alario inevitably gravitate towards the final third, too.
Yet despite the team's relative youth, there is a maturity about the side this season, having learned the knack of when to burst forward and when to be patient. Leverkusen's league-high tally of 12 goals on the break – accounting for 30 per cent of their combined total of 40 – is testament to that, and is even better than counter-attacking kings Leipzig (11).
2) Big game mentality
Some players and teams crumble under the weight of expectation when it comes to the crunch, their nerves eluding them when it matters most. And while nobody could accuse Leipzig of choking, it is perhaps here where Leverkusen have the edge.
Nagelsmann's side have, so far, played eight games against teams currently in the top six but have only won two of those, earning 11 of a possible 24 points (45.8 per cent of the total available). They have two draws with Bayern, while last week's 5-0 thrashing of Schalke was their first over a top-six rival since beating Borussia Mönchengladbach on Matchday 3.
Watch: Leipzig's 5-0 thrashing of Schalke!
As respectable a return as that is, it is no match for Leverkusen, who seem to thrive on the big occasion. Bosz's charges have beaten Bayern, Dortmund and Schalke already this term, while the 1-1 draw with Leipzig in the reverse fixture means they have 10 points from 18 against their fellow top-six contenders (55.6 per cent).
Fine margins are often decisive at the highest level, so the confidence gleaned from such results could play in Leverkusen's favour.
3) Tactics
Much will obviously depend on how the teams line up at the Red Bull Arena. Nagelsmann has recently reverted to a three-man backline, playing traditional full-backs Lukas Klostermann and Marcel Halstenberg either side of Dayot Upamecano – in part due to the ongoing absences of centre-backs Ibrahima Konate and Willi Orban.
It has proved extremely successful in the last three games, though, especially as Nordi Mukiele and winter signing Angelino – both of whom are defenders – line-up in midfield in a 3-4-3 or 3-4-1-2 formation, dropping back into the defence when out of possession.
Watch: How Nagelsmann has improved Leipzig!
The switch has yielded three successive clean sheets – including the 0-0 draw with Bayern – while also providing overloads in midfield that have contributed to the victories over Werder Bremen (3-0) and Schalke (5-0).
Leading scorer Werner is usually the focal point up front, but he has been drifting wide to the left in recent weeks, allowing the in-form Patrik Schick (two goals in his last four) to distract the opposition's defence.
Leverkusen have likewise been playing with three at the back of late, largely because of winter arrival Edmond Tapsoba. The 21-year-old impressed on his league debut against Dortmund on Matchday 21 and hasn't been out of the side since, with Leverkusen winning every game he has played in.
That has allowed Bosz to give free rein to the attacking instincts of wing-backs Mitchell Weiser and Wendell on the flanks in a 3-4-2-1 system. The Dutch tactician is unlikely to change tack here, as the increased numbers in the final third help compensate for the injury-enforced absence of leading scorer Kevin Volland.
Alario is set to continue to deputise up top, with Havertz and Diaby charged with finding the gaps between the lines.
4) Form
Leipzig may be second in the table, just one point behind leaders Bayern, but Leverkusen are the form side going into this fixture.
Bosz's men have been quietly climbing up the table since the turn of the year, so much so that Bayern are the only team to have earned more points (16) in 2020 than Leverkusen have (15).
Watch: Leverkusen's most recent win over Augsburg!
They have won seven of their eight competitive games since the winter break, including the last five, and go all or nothing away from home; alongside Mainz, Leverkusen are the only team yet to draw on foreign soil this season, winning seven and losing four, while they have also kept three clean sheets on the road.
That is not to say Leipzig have been bad, however. Werner and Co. have earned 11 points in 2020 (W3, D2, L1), while they have only dropped seven points from eight games at the Red Bull Arena in 2019/20, averaging almost three goals per match in the process.
So with matters looking too close to call on paper, there's only one thing for it: simply tune in and enjoy the ride on Sunday!