What are your title chances when top at halfway?

Historically, what might that mean for the title race? How often do the leaders go on to lift the Meisterschale? And which team has staged the greatest comeback over the second half of a season?

Followers of German football will have no doubt come across the term Herbstmeister or Herbstmeisterschaft. It literally translates as ‘autumn champions’ or ‘autumn championship’ and is the symbolic honour bestowed upon the team that leads the table after half of the season’s games have been played (17 out of 34 since 1965/66, previously 15 out of 30), which in most years means that every team has played every other team once.

Watch: What is the Meisterschale and how do you say it?

It’s an unusual name for non-Germans to get their heads around.

First of all, it’s not a title that’s awarded in autumn (or actually at all, as it’s symbolic), since the season only reaches its midpoint in winter.

Second, the midpoint of the season has historically been reached in the final game of the calendar year, with the league leaders able to enjoy their status over the winter break. However, in recent years the Bundesliga hasn’t reached Matchday 17 until January.

This has seen a tendency to move away from the term Herbstmeister and more towards something like Hinrundenmeister. German football followers will also be familiar with the word Hinrunde and its associated Rückrunde. They are essentially the first and second leg of the season – or better said, the first and second half of the season – because each leg sees a team play all 17 rivals once.

In the context of 2024/25, Bayern hold a one-point lead over defending champions Bayer Leverkusen with a game in hand, meaning they are already assured of being top at the halfway stage of the season.

Watch: Bayern edge Gladbach to be top halfway through 2024/25

It is the 27th time in their 60 campaigns in the Bundesliga that the record champions have led the pack after half of the season's games have been played. It’s usually an ominous sign for the rest of the league, given the Bavarians have gone on to convert 23 of their previous 26 Herbstmeisterschaften into proper Meisterschalen. It’s a success rate of 88 percent. The three occasions they failed to do so were in 1970/71, 1992/93 and 2011/12.

Of the remaining 35 seasons since the Bundesliga’s creation in 1963/64, 15 other teams have claimed the honour of Herbstmeister, led by Werder Bremen with six, then Borussia Dortmund and Mönchengladbach with four each.

When it comes to teams other than Bayern, the conversion rate of sides being top at halfway and who go on to be champions drops somewhat to 54 percent (19 out of 35). Out of teams to have been Herbstmeister more than once, only Gladbach have a 100 percent success rate with their four crowns come the end of the season.

Taking into account all teams, the numbers work out at around two thirds, with the team top at halfway in 42 of the previous 61 campaigns going on to be champions.

That’s been the case in each of the last four seasons (3x Bayern, 1x Leverkusen). The last time a halfway leader was knocked off top spot was RB Leipzig in 2019/20, as they were overtaken by Bayern’s treble winners.

Watch: Bayern’s 2020 treble winners

It’s also worth noting that the team sitting second at the halfway stage has gone on to claim the title in 10 seasons (16 percent). That means the champions have either been in first or second after playing half of the games in 85 percent of seasons.

That also means that nine teams have come from third place or even lower to take the Meisterschale. In fact, only two out of 61 champions have been outside the top three at the halfway stage.

The first side to achieve the feat was VfB Stuttgart as they came from fourth in 2006/07.

However, the most famous second-half-of-season charge to silverware came in 2008/09. Wolfsburg were actually way down in ninth place, nine points off the summit, after 17 games. But Felix Magath’s side then earned 43 of a possible 51 points in the Rückrunde to storm to a famous title, finishing two points ahead of Bayern.

The Herbstmeister that year was actually Hoffenheim, leading Bayern on goal difference in their maiden Bundesliga campaign. However, they suffered a real drop in form in the second half of the season, finishing seventh to become the only team in Bundesliga history to be top at halfway but finish outside of the top five.

The Sinsheim club are one of four teams to claim the Herbstmeisterschaft but have never got their hands on the actual Meisterschale, alongside Eintracht Frankfurt, Schalke (both halfway leaders twice) and Leipzig.