How can Hamburg and Cologne stay up?

bundesliga.com outlines what they need to do to avoid the drop.

1) Keep the team together

There is a tendency among promoted clubs to scramble together a new squad, bringing in more established players in the hope that their top-flight experience will keep them afloat. 

However, history has shown that Hamburg and Cologne would do well to avoid that temptation and instead keep the team dynamic, movement patterns and the tried-and-trusted on-field relationships.

For example, St. Pauli lost top scorer Marcel Hartel at the end of their 2023/24 promotion-winning campaign but otherwise kept faith with the key players that got them into the Bundesliga. They stayed up.

Watch: The best of Hamburg in 2024/25

Likewise, Heidenheim retained their spine, including the likes of Tim Kleindienst and Jan-Niklas Beste when they came up in 2023. They impressed in the 2023/24 Bundesliga season to the extent that they finished eighth. Frank Schmidt’s side struggled last term, however, in part because those two were among the players that left.

Holstein Kiel, by way of contrast, came up with Pauli but went straight back down again at the end of 2024/25. They lost a significant chunk of the players that had earned them promotion, particularly in defence, including Philipp Sander and Tom Rothe, while Patrick Erras and Colin Kleine-Bekel rarely featured due to health reasons. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Kiel conceded more goals than any other team last season (80).

What that means for Cologne remains to be seen, as in Damion Downs, Tim Lemperle, Max Finkgräfe and Dejan Ljubicic they have lost four of the players who played most minutes for them last term, while the former two had over 30 direct goal contributions combined. 

It is a similar story at Hamburg, with Dennis Hadžikadunić, Adam Karabec, Marco Richter and top scorer Davie Selke all departing over the summer.  

2) Focus on defence

Kaiserslautern won the Bundesliga title as a promoted side in 1998 and an attack-minded RB Leipzig finished as runners-up in their maiden season in 2017, but those are very much the exceptions to the rule.

Normally, promoted sides usually struggle and their best bet is keeping things solid at the back and grinding out results. It may sound boring, but history has shown it is the most effective way of escaping relegation.

Last season Kiel scored an impressive 49 goals – the same amount as Freiburg, who finished seventh – and earned spectacular wins over Borussia Dortmund (4-2) and Borussia Mönchengladbach (4-3). But because they shipped so many goals they were fighting a losing battle.

St. Pauli showed them how it was done. They registered a league-low 28 goals all season but nevertheless finished the campaign with seven points more than Kiel. That was because they conceded just 41 times – only champions Bayern Munich had a better defensive record.

A goal difference of -27 appears to be the watermark; any worse than that and there’s a higher chance of going down.

Incidentally, VfB Stuttgart hold the record for the best defence as a promoted team, conceding only 36 in 2017/18, beating the previous best of 38 set by Bayern in 1965/66.

Watch: The best of Cologne in 2024/25

3) You don’t need THAT many points

Historically, the 40-point mark has always been considered as the safe zone for clubs, but that is no longer the case. In recent years, considerably fewer points have been enough to avoid relegation – hence the above reasoning to aim for avoiding defeat, rather than going for wins.

Since the introduction of the three-point rule, no team has ever gone down with 39 points. Over the last eight years, however, no team has been demoted with 32 points or more. And across the last 20 years, 35 points has always been enough for survival.

Last season, Heidenheim managed to preserve their top-flight status, albeit via the play-offs, after earning just 29 points.

In short, Hamburg and Cologne should try to grind out draws and snatch wins any way they can. Like pennies in a piggy bank, it all adds up and can make the difference in the end.

4) Rinse and repeat for years

Even if HSV and Cologne do stay up in 2025/26, they’re not out of the woods yet. While the first year is always the toughest for promoted sides, historically 55 percent of all promoted sides go down again inside two years. That rises to 73 percent inside four years.

Put another way, only 27 percent of all promoted clubs have managed to avoid the drop inside the first five years after promotion. But if they can get over that hurdle, they’re established in the top flight.

Incidentally, only eight clubs have never been relegated from the Bundesliga: Bayern (promoted in 1965), Leverkusen (1979), VfL Wolfsburg (1997), Hoffenheim (2008), Augsburg (2011), Leipzig (2016), Union Berlin (2019) and Heidenheim (2023).