Why Leverkusen will beat Newcastle

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Goals either side of half-time from Alejandro Grimaldo and Patrik Schick earned Kasper Hjulmand’s side a superb 2-0 win at Etihad Stadium – their second league-phase victory in succession after the 1-0 win at José Mourinho’s Benfica three weeks earlier.

Those back-to-back triumphs – and shut-outs – should stand them in excellent stead against a Newcastle side who have found the net in each of their last 15 games in all competitions, since a goalless draw at Bournemouth on 21 September.

More importantly, though, the Magpies have found clean sheets much harder to come by than Die Werkself of late, conceding 11 times in their last five away games alone.

In three of those games – including the 2-1 Matchday 5 defeat against a Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang-inspired Marseille – they have taken the lead only to emerge empty-handed.

Indeed, Newcastle’s recent 4-1 triumph at Everton is their only win on their travels in nearly eight months – hardly the type of record that suggests they can pick up all three points at the BayArena.

Notwithstanding last weekend’s 2-1 Bundesliga defeat by Borussia Dortmund, Leverkusen have been in fine fettle in front of their own supporters, winning their previous three home league games by an aggregate score of 10-0.

They have yet to triumph on home soil in the Champions League's league phase this season but will be determined to set that record straight against Eddie Howe’s team, particularly after their defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in October.

Rather than dent their confidence, that result has merely served to sharpen Leverkusen’s focus. They have won seven of their 10 matches since that 7-2 reverse, only losing to Dortmund, Bayern Munich and most recently Augsburg.

Wednesday’s central midfield battle is likely to play a key role in deciding the outcome of the match. While Newcastle’s trio of Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali and Joelinton are regarded as one of the most uncompromising in the Premier League, Leverkusen are hardly short on star quality in that department themselves.

Aleix García in particular has blossomed under Hjulmand, completing 93 percent of his league-high 1,298 open-play passes in the Bundesliga this season. The 28-year-old has also registered more touches of the ball (1,454) than anyone else in the division in 2025/26, while he ranks 13th in the Champions League for passes completed (300) at a rate of 90 percent.

Ibrahim Maza, 20, underlined his growing status with a mature display – and an assist – against the Cityzens last month, while Malik Tillman was arguably Bayer’s best player at Etihad Stadium, playing a key role in both the visitors’ goals.

Watch: The best of Aleix García in the Bundesliga

As if that wasn’t enough, Czechia international Schick appears to be hitting his stride again after missing four games in October with a hamstring injury.

As well as registering three goal involvements in his last four league appearances, the 29-year-old has also scored in both his last two Champions League outings, netting the winner in Lisbon before completing the scoring in Manchester three weeks later.

Against Newcastle, Schick will be looking to become the first Czech player to score in three consecutive Champions League games since former Dortmund frontman Jan Koller, who did so for Dortmund in 2002/03 – the last time these two teams met in the competition.

Newcastle left the BayArena with a 3-1 win in the second group stage 22 years ago, but all the signs point to a very different outcome on Wednesday.